statistics and probability in business?

statistics and probability in business?

Course #/Title: MATU-203 – Introduction to Statistics Assignment Title: Final Class Project – Parts 1 and 2 Week Assessment Occurs: Week 4 Total Points for Assignment: 100 points Criteria Part 1 Collection of Data Part 2 Organization of Data EXEMPLARY PROFICIENT DEVELOPING EMERGING NOT COMPLETE 30-35 The paper fulfills all instructions for Part 1. All questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate excellent understanding of all topics. 25-29 One or two of the required elements for Part 1 is missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate good understanding of all topics. 17-24 Three required elements for Part 1 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Some questions are thoroughly answered but some lack detail, and answers demonstrate good understanding of most, but not all, topics. 1-16 Four or more required elements for Part 1 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most questions are not thoroughly answered and most answers demonstrate poor understanding of most topics. 0 Part 1 is missing from submission, or its contents are not a response to the

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assignment directions, or the attempt is confusing or incorrect to the point of being inadequate. 30-35 The paper fulfills all instructions for Part 2. All data and statistics are presented clearly and are correct. All graphs are presented correctly and clearly with proper labeling. All questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate excellent understanding of all topics. 25-29 One or two of the required elements for Part 2 is missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most data and statistics are presented mostly clearly and are mostly correct. Most graphs are presented correctly and clearly with proper labeling. Most questions are thoroughly answered 17-24 Three required elements for Part 2 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Some data and statistics are presented somewhat clearly and are somewhat correct. Some graphs are presented correctly and clearly with somewhat proper labeling. Some questions are thoroughly answered but some lack detail, and answers 1-16 Four or more required elements for Part 2 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most data and statistics are not presented clearly or are not correct. Most graphs are not presented correctly and/or clearly and/or don’t have proper labeling. Most questions are not thoroughly answered and most answers demonstrate poor understanding of most topics. 0 Part 2 is missing from submission, or its contents are not a response to the assignment directions, or the attempt is confusing or incorrect to the point of being inadequate. April 19, 2018 Writing and Organization Title Page, References, Writing, and Organization and answers demonstrate good understanding of all topics. demonstrate good understanding of most, but not all, topics. 26-30 21-25 15-20 1-14 0 All required content is present (Title Page, Main Body, References in APA or MLA format, Appendices). Correct formatting is applied throughout. Writing is logical and organized. Sentences are well-phrased and varied in length and structure. Word choice is consistently precise and accurate. The writing is free of errors in grammar, spelling and writing mechanics. The report is the specified length and formatted to be visually appealing. Format does not follow all requirements listed below. One or two of the following is incorrect or missing: (1) Title page, (2) header with name and page numbers, (3) References in APA or MLA format (3)correct word choices, (4) accurate grammar, (4) length requirements, (5) clear, (6) correctly labeled graphs, tables or formulas, if applicable, (7) margins (8) appendix Format does not follow all requirements listed below. Three of the following are incorrect or missing: (1) Title page, (2) header with name and page numbers, (3) References in APA or MLA format (3)correct word choices, (4) accurate grammar, (4) length requirements, (5) clear, (6) correctly labeled graphs, tables or formulas, if applicable, (7) margins, (8) appendix Format does not follow all requirements listed below. More than three of the following are incorrect or missing: (1) Title page, (2) header with name and page numbers, (3) References in APA or MLA format (3)correct word choices, (4) accurate grammar, (4) length requirements, (5) clear, (6) correctly labeled graphs, tables or formulas, if applicable, (7) margins, (8) appendix Format does not follow specifications given in the assignment directions, and/or there are numerous writing errors to the point that meaning and relevance cannot be determined. April 19, 2018 MATU-203 Final Project Instructions Mastering the concepts in Introductory Statistics assists in building critical thinking skills, developing businesses and organizations, and solving all types of problems that require data. But an understanding of statistics extends beyond the ability to crunch numbers or use a software program. The ability to collect, organize, and analyze data is the beginning. The ability to clearly communicate your results to another person is the mark of true mastery. The Assignment In this assignment, you will choose a scenario with data – from one of 5 options provided at the end of these directions under Project Topics – and you will construct a paper that pulls together the statistics you have learned in order to answer a question. You will: 1. 2. 3. 4. Introduce the main question, and explain the data that you will use to address it Organize your data by providing appropriate charts, graphs and descriptive statistics Analyze your data by conducting a hypothesis test State your conclusions and recommendations See the section Outline Of Material To Present below for a more detailed explanation of what you will submit for each of these four sections. The topics that you may choose from are      Business – Analysis of Home Sales Health Sciences – The Effect of Caffeine on Heart Rate Psychology – The Effect of Colored Paper on Reading Speed Sociology – Level of Education and its Effect on Homelessness in Veterans Criminal Justice – Analysis of Poverty and Crime At the end of these directions, under Project Topics, are the full descriptions for each of these 5 topic options, including the data you must use in your analysis. Please scroll down and read through each of these 5 options in their entirety before making your selection. You must select one of these 5 topics. You may not select your own topic. Outline of Material to Present This assignment is broken down into four parts: Collection of Data, Organization of Data, Analysis of Data, and Conclusion/Recommendations. Each part has a subset of questions and issues you must address. Please ensure that your report includes a section for each of the 4 Parts listed below, and that each part addresses ALL of the sub-questions listed. Again, you must select one of the 5 topics provided at the end of these instructions in the section Project Topics, and you must use the data and names provided within your chosen topic prompt. Part 1: Collection of Data – Introduction and Primary Data Analysis (3 – 5 paragraphs): 1. Describe the objective: Before you can examine the data, you must understand the problem. a. Discuss the importance of this issue or situation. b. Introduce the company or organization you are preparing this report for, and explain why it is important to them. c. What is the research question? In other words, what is the basic question you, as the researcher, want to address? Why should we care about it? d. Was this an experimental or observational study? Explain. 2. Clearly and with sufficient detail, describe the population, sample, and collection methods in this study. a. What is the population you are interested in? b. What is the sample, specifically? c. What is a plausible way the sample was chosen and why? d. What problems or biases might have occurred from choosing that type of sampling method? 3. Discuss the type of data. a. Was the data quantitative or qualitative? Explain. b. What is the level of measurement (nominal, ordinal, interval and ratio)? Explain. 4. Describe the variables a. What are the independent and dependent variables? Give the type, units, and more specific information. b. Give examples of any confounding variables, lurking variables, and/or missing variables and explain how they may be affecting your study. Part 2: Organization of Data – Examination of Descriptive Statistics (graphs and tables, and approximately 4 paragraphs) Now that your data is collected, you need to organize it to identify characteristics and patterns. 1. Graph your data appropriately. Construct a scatterplot, bar graph, or other graph to show the nature of the data. For each graph, be sure you label the graph completely – that means give it a title, label the axes, and explain what that graph means in the context of this narrative. 2. Discuss whether the data is normally distributed. For this, use a visual inspection of a 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Histogram and Normal Quantile Plot, as well as what you see in the data itself and what that means about the high and low ends of the data. Calculate and present the three Measures of Central Tendency: mean, median, and mode. Provide both the value of the statistics as well as an analysis of what they mean in terms of understanding the sample. Calculate and present the Measures of Variation: range and standard deviation. Provide both the value of the statistics as well as an analysis of what they mean in terms of understanding the sample. Calculate and present the 5-Number Summary: minimum, Q1, median, Q3, maximum. Provide both the value of the statistics as well as an analysis of what they mean in terms of understanding the sample. Identify any Outliers. You can do this using a visual inspection of the graph as well as the formulas from the textbook (HINT: Q1 – 1.5*IQR, and Q3 + 1.5*IQR). Discuss any corrections: Based on your inspection of the outliers are there any errors that should be corrected? How would you correct them? Discuss the implications of this result. Part 3: Analysis of Data – Examination of Inferential Statistics (tables of results, and appropriate hypothesis test steps) Assuming that all assumptions have been met, it is now time to analyze the data. Present a complete hypothesis test. 1. Identify the claim. 2. State the null and alternative hypotheses, in words and in symbolic form. 3. Explain what type of test you will be performing (i.e. a test of two dependent means, a test for correlation, etc.) and why that test is appropriate to address the main question you are trying to answer. 4. Select the significance level and determine if it is a one or two-tailed test. 5. Identify the test statistic and compute the value of the test statistic and the p-value. 6. Make a decision of whether to Reject of Fail to Reject the null hypothesis. 7. Restate your decision in nontechnical terms. That means, state your conclusion in a way that anyone can understand; a final conclusion that just says “reject the null hypothesis” by itself without explanation is not helpful to those who hired you. Explain in ordinary terms what it means. Part 4: Conclusion and Recommendations (approximately 3 paragraphs) Summarize and explain your results. Provide recommendations. 1. What can you infer from the statistics? 2. What information might lead you to a different conclusion? 3. What variables are missing? 4. What additional information would be valuable to help draw a more certain conclusion? 5. What qualitative or quantitative data would you want to collect if you were hired to do a follow up study? Formatting Requirements Your paper should be a Word document, with embedded charts, graphs, figures, and tables. It should be APA or MLA Format, with name and page number on each page, and should include each of the following: 1. Title page: You should have a cover page. The cover page should have the specific title of your study (Note: “MATU 203 Paper” does not clearly define the topic you are presenting), your name, Brandman University, MATU 203, term, and year. You might find it helpful to include an image of something representative of the study to provide a visual context for your report. 2. Write Up/Body: The body should be 5 – 8 pages with graphs, images, screen shots of data output, and text included. Please use a “page break” to separate the cover from the body and the references from the body and the appendices from the reference page. 3. References: Please include all articles, books, websites, publications, or other information that helped you reach your conclusion. The references come after the main body and before the appendix. At least two references are required, not including the textbook. 4. Appendices: You must have an appendix. The appendix goes at the end of your paper and might be an additional 1-2 pages. In the appendix, include your given data as well as supplemental charts and graphs outside of the ones included in your paper. Label the appendices, Appendix 1, Appendix 2, and so on. Academic Integrity The University expects that students will conduct themselves in an honest and ethical manner and respect the intellectual work of others. Your paper will be submit through TurnItIn, which is a plagiarism detection service. Your paper will receive a Similarity Report that represents the percentage of your paper that is similar to or copied from other sources. Any type of plagiarism, including using work without referencing, copying another paper, not citing references in the body of the paper, using a paper from another course, etc., will be met with penalties determined by the instructor, including the possibility of failing the course, and having an Academic Integrity Violation Sanction Report submitted to University administration. Note: You may not use a paper you wrote from a prior course, even if it is the same class you are taking now, without prior permission from your individual instructor. If you have further questions about academic integrity, please contact your instructor and/or see the catalog. Project Topics (select one of the topics and data sets below) Study #1: Business Asking Price (thousands), X Weeks to Sale, Y 150 6 250 17 200 8 320 12 80 5 120 8 Mickey and Minnie conjecture that the higher the price of the home, the longer the house will be on the market. They select a simple random sample of 31 recently sold homes in Anaheim for analysis and they want to know if the number of weeks to sale influences asking price. You are asked to organize and analyze this data, and present your results to the company with an appropriate hypothesis test. 300 12 180 6 600 22 300 9 210 8 300 16 460 14 670 15 400 10 300 18 200 9 Please present a report to the Mickey and Minnie executives that includes your data, results, and related evidence from national studies. 240 14 65 7 900 13 330 12 205 5 405 15 630 16 255 310 7 14 440 16 305 13 700 280 20 6 Mickey and Minnie Home Sales, an Orange County real estate company, wants to know if there is a relationship between the price a home sells for and weeks the home was on the market prior to the sale. Click here to Download the Data Set for Study #1 Study #2: Nursing and Health Sciences Premiere Hospital of Newport Beach (PHNB) wants to determine whether or not to serve caffeinated coffee for their patients in the waiting rooms. At this point, they are not concerned about the visitors, only people who will be treated at the hospital. As a state-of-the-art medical facility, they know that many similar facilities do serve coffee and they want to determine if there is sufficient evidence to show that caffeinated coffee increases heart rate. The hospital tested 31 hospital patients who each recently had two cups of coffee while awaiting a doctor consultation. The patients’ heart rates were recorded before they drank coffee, and again after they drank coffee. You are asked to organize and analyze this data, and present your results with an appropriate hypothesis test of whether caffeine significantly increases heart rate. Please present a report to the Premiere Hospital administrators that includes your data, results, and related evidence from national studies. Heart Rate Before Coffee 80 70 80 65 77 60 90 75 88 70 78 70 62 50 72 75 60 72 60 68 65 62 75 84 87 73 78 68 72 81 75 Click here to Download the Data Set for Study #2 Heart Rate After Coffee 95 100 84 65 84 74 100 85 98 95 80 80 78 60 88 79 72 90 65 78 75 75 90 88 95 87 88 75 84 92 86 Study #3: Psychology Some people believe that reading text printed on colored paper is easier than reading text on white paper. For this reason, disability services locations often provide colored filters that are clear to put over top of books and imprinted pages. Irvine University, a public research institution with 30,000 undergraduate students, is considering the possibility of providing colored filters for those people in disability services who would be helped by this tool. Irvine University randomly tested 31 students in their learning disability program during the first week of classes in Fall 2018. The students, of varying ages, abilities, majors, and socioeconomic status were timed as they read a passage printed in black ink printed on white paper and then timed reading a similar passage printed with black ink on light blue-colored paper. Students were tested on one day with a passage on white paper and then asked to willfully return the next day to read a similar, but different passage of the same length and difficulty level, on light blue-colored paper. Is there sufficient evidence to show that reading text on light blue-color paper is more effective? You are asked to organize and analyze this data, and present your results to the university with a hypothesis test on whether or not there is significant improvement in reading speed. Please present a report to Irvine University’s Disability Services directors that includes your data, results, and related evidence from national studies. Click here to Download the Data Set for Study #3 Light Blue Paper (seconds taken to read passage) White Paper (seconds taken to read passage) 70 113 50 138 77 120 100 79 67 73 67 70 110 95 49 75 60 82 88 80 100 102 96 64 73 93 85 69 91 112 124 65 100 40 120 74 100 90 68 60 71 74 68 90 85 44 69 58 75 78 74 85 100 90 64 73 94 75 65 92 100 105 Study #4: Sociology California Veteran Support, an agency delivering resources to support military veterans in California, wants to address the problem of veterans being homeless. To start, they want to determine whether or not there is a correlation between homelessness and other variables, such as education, crime, and mental illness, so that they can determine the most effective resources to offer. You are hired to specifically investigate whether or not there is a relationship between years of education, and length of time spent homeless. You receive a survey of responses from 31 homeless veterans from various cities in California. Each veteran responded to indicate how many months they have lived on the streets, as well as the grade they finished in school (one year of college would equal 13 years of school, 4 years of college would equal 16 years of school, and so on. Some veterans received a GED and had less than 12 years of formal education). Is there sufficient evidence to show that the years of education a veteran has received may affect the length of time that he or she is homeless? You are asked to organize and analyze this data, and present your results with a hypothesis test on whether or not there is a correlation between years of education and months spent homeless. Please present a report to the California Veteran Support directors that includes your data, results, and related evidence from national studies. Click here to Download the Data Set for Study #4 16 Homelessness in months on the street 5 13 10 12 4 12 12 18 7 12 10 16 20 16 18 12 20 13 17 14 4 9 8 10 9 15 15 12 14 13 9 10 18 12 35 16 28 15 12 14 14 15 12 13 16 16 18 12 13 14 18 4 10 10 15 24 5 30 6 14 18 Education in years of school Study #5: Criminal Justice Many public bodies seek to understand the issues surrounding criminal behavior so that they can find ways to reduce crime. You are asked to determine if there is evidence of a relationship between poverty and crime. Since arrests do not equal convictions and number of convictions is not a good variable with the Three Strike Law in California, you decide to ask 31 random people in and around the Los Angeles courthouse over the month of July to voluntarily give you their family income and self-reported incidents of criminal activity for your study. Half of the respondents were awaiting trials of various types, and half were bystanders. You are asked to organize and analyze this data, and present your results with a hypothesis test on whether or not there is a correlation between family income and number of incidents of criminal activity. Prepare this analysis for your local law enforcement agency. Please include your data, results, and related evidence from national studies. Click here to Download the Data Set for Study #5 160 Number of self-reported instances of criminal activity 1 5 8 12 0 100 1 18 7 200 0 16 2 25 10 40 5 32 13 14 20 90 1 30 9 40 6 15 14 28 10 30 8 120 0 30 10 40 35 47 51 75 130 55 25 15 35 65 52 4 4 2 3 0 1 3 9 3 0 1 3 Family Income (thousands) Course #/Title: MATU-203 – Introduction to Statistics Assignment Title: Final Class Project Week Assessment Occurs: Week 8 Total Points for Assignment: 200 points Criteria Part 1 Collection of Data Part 2 Organization of Data EXEMPLARY PROFICIENT DEVELOPING EMERGING NOT COMPLETE 36-40 The paper fulfills all instructions for Part 1. All questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate excellent understanding of all topics. 30-35 One or two of the required elements for Part 1 is missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate good understanding of all topics. 20-29 Three required elements for Part 1 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Some questions are thoroughly answered but some lack detail, and answers demonstrate good understanding of most, but not all, topics. 1-19 Four or more required elements for Part 1 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most questions are not thoroughly answered and most answers demonstrate poor understanding of most topics. 0 Part 1 is missing from submission, or its contents are not a response to the assignment directions, or the attempt is confusing or incorrect to the point of being inadequate. 36-40 The paper fulfills all instructions for Part 2. All data and statistics are presented clearly and are correct. All graphs are presented correctly and clearly with proper labeling. All questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate excellent understanding of all topics. 30-35 One or two of the required elements for Part 2 is missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most data and statistics are presented mostly clearly and are mostly correct. Most graphs are presented correctly and clearly with proper labeling. Most questions are thoroughly answered 20-29 Three required elements for Part 2 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Some data and statistics are presented somewhat clearly and are somewhat correct. Some graphs are presented correctly and clearly with somewhat proper labeling. Some questions are thoroughly answered but some lack detail, and answers 1-19 Four or more required elements for Part 2 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most data and statistics are not presented clearly or are not correct. Most graphs are not presented correctly and/or clearly and/or don’t have proper labeling. Most questions are not thoroughly answered and most answers demonstrate poor understanding of most topics. 0 Part 2 is missing from submission, or its contents are not a response to the assignment directions, or the attempt is confusing or incorrect to the point of being inadequate. April 19, 2018 and answers demonstrate good understanding of all topics. demonstrate good understanding of most, but not all, topics. Part 3 36-40 30-35 20-29 1-19 0 Analysis of Data The paper fulfills all instructions for Part 3. Correct hypothesis test performed. All steps of the hypothesis test presented correctly and clearly. Conclusion is correct and correctly stated in nontechnical terms. All questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate excellent understanding of all topics. One or two of the required elements for Part 3 is missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Correct hypothesis test performed. Most steps of the hypothesis test presented mostly correctly and clearly. Conclusion is mostly correct and stated in non-technical terms. Most questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate good understanding of all topics. Three required elements for Part 3 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Correct hypothesis test performed. Some steps of the hypothesis test presented somewhat correctly and clearly. Conclusion is somewhat correct and stated in nontechnical terms. Some questions are thoroughly answered but some lack detail, and answers demonstrate good understanding of most, but not all, topics. Four or more required elements for Part 3 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Incorrect hypothesis test performed and/or most steps of the hypothesis test not presented correctly and clearly. Conclusion is not correct and/or not correctly stated in nontechnical terms. Most questions are not thoroughly answered and most answers demonstrate poor understanding of most topics. Part 3 is missing from submission, or its contents are not a response to the assignment directions, or the attempt is confusing or incorrect to the point of being inadequate. Part 4 36-40 30-35 20-29 1-19 0 Conclusions and Recommendations The paper fulfills all instructions for Part 4. All questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate excellent understanding of all topics. One of the required elements for Part 4 is missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most questions are thoroughly answered and answers demonstrate good understanding of all topics. Two required elements for Part 4 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Some questions are thoroughly answered but some lack detail, and answers demonstrate good understanding of most, but not all, topics. Three required elements for Part 4 are missing, incomplete or underdeveloped. Most questions are not thoroughly answered and most answers demonstrate poor understanding of most topics. Part 4 is missing from submission, or its contents are not a response to the assignment directions, or the attempt is confusing or incorrect to the point of being inadequate. April 19, 2018 Writing and Organization Title Page, References, Writing, and Organization 36-40 30-35 20-29 1-19 0 All required content is present (Title Page, Main Body, References in APA or MLA format, Appendices). Correct formatting is applied throughout. Writing is logical and organized. Sentences are well-phrased and varied in length and structure. Word choice is consistently precise and accurate. The writing is free of errors in grammar, spelling and writing mechanics. The report is the specified length and formatted to be visually appealing. Format does not follow all requirements listed below. One or two of the following is incorrect or missing: (1) Title page, (2) header with name and page numbers, (3) References in APA or MLA format (3)correct word choices, (4) accurate grammar, (4) length requirements, (5) clear, (6) correctly labeled graphs, tables or formulas, if applicable, (7) margins (8) appendix Format does not follow all requirements listed below. Three of the following are incorrect or missing: (1) Title page, (2) header with name and page numbers, (3) References in APA or MLA format (3)correct word choices, (4) accurate grammar, (4) length requirements, (5) clear, (6) correctly labeled graphs, tables or formulas, if applicable, (7) margins, (8) appendix Format does not follow all requirements listed below. More than three of the following are incorrect or missing: (1) Title page, (2) header with name and page numbers, (3) References in APA or MLA format (3)correct word choices, (4) accurate grammar, (4) length requirements, (5) clear, (6) correctly labeled graphs, tables or formulas, if applicable, (7) margins, (8) appendix Format does not follow specifications given in the assignment directions, and/or there are numerous writing errors to the point that meaning and relevance cannot be determined. April 19, 2018
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